Monday, November 1, 2021

Hit Makers by Derek Thompson

Rating: WORTHY!

Though the two books are unconnected, I think of this in the same light as The Song Machine by John Seabook which I favorably reviewed a short while back. This audiobook, read by the author, tells the same kind of story, but its reach is broader, going beyond music to movies, apps, and novels as well, but it's much more about how some things become popular while others do not, than it is about exactly what mechanics went into constructing something that's likely to become popular.

That said, its breadth extends only to the US borders - like there's nothing outside that's worth considering - and the book is very shallow on it's claim that it discusses "The Science of Popularity in an Age of Distraction." There's no science here. There really can't be - at least not yet, because liking or disliking something is such a whimsical, personal, popularity-based, and ultimately insubstantial thing that even crowd-sourcing it is unreliable. If you go into this as a business student, perhaps hoping to pick up some valuable marketing lessons, this book won't help you.

The book begins a hundred years ago and moves through art and design, to movies, particularly Disney, and to novels, looking at, for example, the "50 Shades of Gray" (barf!) phenomenon. The only sure conclusion is that nobody knows anything, least of all the people in the various entertainment industries who are paid the big bucks to find and promote successes. As often as not, you'd have as much success tossing a coin to decide as you would trusting these over-paid guys to make a competent prognostication. They have failed repeatedly. To give just two examples: over signing the Beatles to a record label, and over signing JK Rowling to a publisher.

Recently I was watching a Netflix show called "The Movies That Made Us" which looks at various popular movies and talks about how they got made, and in a recent season, this show looks at horror blockbusters, specifically, in three different episodes: Halloween, Friday the 13th, and Nightmare on Elm Street. I'm not a horror movie fan, but no-one can deny the success of all three of those movies and the franchises they spawned, yet not a single one of them got any backing from a major stuido, all of which thought the movies would flop.

The same thing happened to the "50 Shades" novel. It was fan fiction to begin with, based on the Twilight novel, but once the author realized it was becoming popular, she pulled it from the fan fiction site, changed it to make it an original story, and self-published it. The rest is history - but the publishing world took forever to realize what was going on! Of course, not everyone has that success, and such authors seem to be rather one note. Meyer never really left her Twilight years, and James is really only one shade. Even Rowling hasn't managed to repeat her Potter success, and it's arguable whether she could have made a decent living as a writer were it not for her pre-existing fame derived from the Potter novels.

So no, there's no scientific pathway to sucess. This would have been a different book had there been any such path, although there are enough ideas explored, and possibilities sprinkled throughout this book that it does offer some sort of potential - albeit by no means guaranteed - pathways to explore at least. I enjoyed it and learned a few things from it, so I can commend it as a worthy read.